Report of the Assistant Chief Executive

This report summarises the headline outputs that have been released from the 2021 Census so far, specifically describing the change in resident population, the concerns the Council has in terms of missing population, and an overview of how the Census results are generally used to support decision making.

The Committee received a report and presentation of the Assistant Chief Executive which summarised the headline outputs that had been released from the 2021 Census so far, specifically describing the change in resident population, the concerns the Council had in terms of missing population, and an overview of how the Census results were generally used to support decision making.

Key points and themes within the report included:

• Key results from the 2021 Census;
• Concerns with the Census results;
• The Manchester City Council Forecasting Model (MCCFM);
• Using population statistics to inform service planning; and
• The importance of the Census and population statistics.

Key points and queries that arose from the committee’s discussions included:

• Funding implications of the population undercount in the Census 2021;
• The Manchester City Council Forecasting Model (MCCFM); and
• Opportunities for Ward Councillors to engage with this work at a ward level, including feeding back information.

The Assistant Chief Executive reported that the Council was in discussions with Government officials and the Office for National Statistics (ONS) about the undercount and funding implications, had offered to share the MCCFM with them and was lobbying hard to get this undercount taken into account in the funding formulas.

In response to a Member’s questions about the MCCFM, the Head of Performance, Research and Intelligence reported that this was a recognised model, which had been through testing and review, and had been procured by the Council a number of years ago.  The Performance and Insight Manager reported that the Council had used a number of different data sources to ascertain the population numbers that should have been expected in the Census.  She described how the model had been developed by an eminent demographer and the methodology that Manchester was using and stated that Manchester’s approach had been peer reviewed.  The Member welcomed this work.

The Head of Performance, Research and Intelligence reported that a lot of work was taking place with Neighbourhood Teams and other agencies to understand the local context but acknowledged a suggestion that more could be done with Ward Councillors and stated that he would take this forward.   In response to a Member’s question, the Performance and Insight Manager outlined some of the data sources used including Child Benefit, Houses in Multiple Occupation (HMOs), Council Tax, Higher Education Statistics Agency (HESA) and the electoral roll.  She reported that the Council had a ward data bank and that a lot of ward-level data was available, which could be shared with Members.

In response to a question from the Chair about data in the Census such as ethnicity, sexual orientation and gender identity, the Assistant Chief Executive reported that the detailed information within the Census was being used, albeit with the caveat that there were people missing from these figures.  The Performance and Insight Manager advised that there was a concern that a higher proportion of the people missing from the Census data were likely to be from Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic (BAME) groups.  She reported that the Council was building up information from other sources, such as the school census, on issues such as ethnicity and language.

Decision:

To note the report.