Report of the Deputy City Treasurer attached

This report provides an update on the latest inflation and demand growth estimates which are included in the Medium-Term Financial Plan.

The Committee considered the report of the Deputy Chief Executive and City Treasurer that provided an update on the latest inflation and demand growth estimates which are included in the Medium-Term Financial Plan.

Key points and themes in the report included:

·         Providing an introduction and background, noting that the assumptions take into the account the likely resources that will be available to fund the budget, including government grant funding, council tax and business rates income; 

·         Consideration of inflationary pressures, noting the provisions that had been made within the draft Revenue Budget;

·         Consideration to demand and demographic pressures, noting the assumed levels of demographic and demand growth for 2022/23 to 2024/25; and

·         Conclusions.

Some of the key points that arose from the Committee’s discussions were: -

·         How much thought had been given to flexibility in the modelling, insofar as support to asylum seekers and refugees placed within Manchester, free school meals during school holidays and the use of private rented temporary accommodation for those who were homeless;

·         Had the trajectory of demand in Adult Social Care and how Manchester could manage the funding deficit been considered;

·         What work had been undertaken at a GMCA level to address the rapid increase of residents housed in temporary accommodation within the region compared to the national increase;

·         The longer term projections for the growth of the city and demand on services would be helpful;

·         What proportion of the Council’s Social Care contracts had the requirement to pay staff the Real Living Wage; and

·         Did the additional £2.3m for the investment in edge of care and early intervention in 2022/23 reflect the growth in these areas, the 3% demographic growth assumption or both.

The Deputy City Treasurer advised that the Council had received a number of one-off funding packages of support and all options were being considered as part of the 2022/23 budget setting process.  Concerns did exist around inflation and over the increasing cost of energy prices which would impact on the modelling of the revenue budget.  It was reported that a significant sum of funding had already been put in place this financial year to help address homelessness and improvements had and continuee to be made.

The Leader added that there were only certain things that the Council now knew about due to experience which could not have been modelled for in previous years, such as the need and cost of free school meals in school holidays.

The Deputy City Treasurer reported that the Council had employed an organisation Impower to help with the implementation of the Better Outcomes Better Lives workstream and support on the financial modelling for Adult Social Care.

The Leader advised that there would be a report to next months Communities and Equalities Scrutiny Committee that would look at the issue of the increase of residents housed in temporary accommodation which could be shared with Members of this committee.

The Deputy City Treasurer advised that the work of the GMCA had been around tackling rough sleeping, whilst the bulk of the pressure faced by the Council centred around homelessness in families and no-fault evictions and the associated cost of finding temporary accommodation.  He also advised that in relation to the Council’s Adult Social Care contracts, homecare workers received the Real Living Wage as a minimum, which was a higher rate than the national living wage and in terms of care home workers they were in receipt of the national living wage at present.  As a Council, its minimum payment level to staff was above the Real Living Wage.

The Committee was advised that the additional £2.3m for the investment in edge of care and early intervention reflected both the growth in these areas and the 3% demographic growth assumption.

Decision

The Committee notes the report.